So next week they'll start announcing the winners of the various Nobel Prizes, beginning -- probably -- with the one for Medicine on Monday (the small caveat is because all the prizes except the Peace Prize (to be announced Friday 12 October) are still listed with "at the earliest" times, suggesting possible delays (though these are in fact unlikely)).
On Monday, 8 October we'll find out if the Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced on Thursday the 11th; if the Swedish Academy remains silent (they always give a heads-up a few days ahead of time, and would announce on Monday that they're announcing the winner on Thursday), then we have to wait at least another week, until the 18th (and possibly -- though it's extremely unlikely, until the 25th).
Ladbrokes opened betting on the Literature Prize more than a month ago (see my previous mention) and their odds have been getting much of the attention (in lieu of much else to go on ...). Now that the Swedish Academy has actually gotten down to deliberations -- they've presumably been arguing about who should get the prize, from a shortlist of about five authors (whose names are also kept secret), for at least a week now -- the chances of some good leakage begin to improve dramatically, and any movement as far as the odds go begins to look a lot more interesting and significant.
As for example Alison Flood noted in The Guardian yesterday, William Trevor's odds for Nobel literature prize tumble, as Trevor has been -- besides Bob Dylan (sigh) -- one of the few authors whose odds have changed dramatically since they were first posted. She reports:
Among the names listed at Ladbrokes, the ones whose odds have improved most are:
(I refuse to list Bob Dylan -- who improved from 33/1 to 10/1 thanks to the generosity of people who aren't interested in making any money off of who wins the Nobel Prize, but rather are just looking for an easy way to simply donate money to Ladbrokes (since that's what they're in effect doing).)
Before you get all excited and start reading too much into this, note that almost all the other names have had no odds-movement whatsoever -- suggesting very limited betting so far. Also worth considering: except for the two front-runners, Unibet, which also takes Nobel bets doesn't offer any of the big movers from Ladbrokes -- they don't even bother listing Trevor, Ngũgĩ, Nádas, Stoppard, and Kundera. As important: if there were significant betting, then the odds would converge (i.e. everyone who thought Mo Yan would win would bet at Ladbrokes, everyone betting on Murakami at Unibet, until the odds were roughly the same at both betting shops -- they're not right now); as is the 'market' looks suspiciously thin (as also the Ladbrokes Dylan-odds suggest: if you really believed he had any chance you'd bet your money on him at Unibet, where you'd get a considerably higher payout for the same wager).
What's really striking to me is that Ladbrokes doesn't seem to have added any names since they opened betting (well, aside from E.L.James at a joking 500/1) -- last year (and in previous years) there were numerous and regular additions along the way. While they have a strong starting list, it's surprising that they haven't really picked up any new names -- either from various public Nobel-discussions or stray Stockholm gossip. I imagine names will still be added (Mahmoud Dowlatabadi ! Krasznahorkai László ! Álvaro Mutis !), but it's odd that practically none have been so far; the fact that none have suggests there simply isn't much good gossip floating around yet (or all that much general betting interest either).
The Swedish Academy man in charge, Peter Englund, has a weblog, but there's not much to divine from the entries there either -- though in the most recent entry he does describe running into last year's laureate, Tomas Tranströmer, and mentioning: "Jag berättar att snart kommer någon annan ta hans roll som “Årets Nobelpristagare”." (yeah, that's not really at all helpful ...).
I'm still hedging my bets; nothing I've sniffed is very suggestive so far, though if pressed I'd bet even money that Mo Yan is one of the shortlisted authors (and William Trevor isn't) -- but that's about as far as I am willing to go for now. But now is when it really starts to get interesting, and odds (and inside-information-getting-out) can start changing fast.
Stay tuned !
Ladbrokes opened betting on the Literature Prize more than a month ago (see my previous mention) and their odds have been getting much of the attention (in lieu of much else to go on ...). Now that the Swedish Academy has actually gotten down to deliberations -- they've presumably been arguing about who should get the prize, from a shortlist of about five authors (whose names are also kept secret), for at least a week now -- the chances of some good leakage begin to improve dramatically, and any movement as far as the odds go begins to look a lot more interesting and significant.
As for example Alison Flood noted in The Guardian yesterday, William Trevor's odds for Nobel literature prize tumble, as Trevor has been -- besides Bob Dylan (sigh) -- one of the few authors whose odds have changed dramatically since they were first posted. She reports:
"Trevor's odds have tumbled in the last week following a string of decent bets. We didn't see a penny for him until someone had £50 at 100/1 (meaning a potential return of £5,000 should he win) which was the first of several bets at the price," said Ladbrokes spokesman Alex Donohue.Before you get all excited, a couple of notes: first and foremost, it's unlikely the Swedish Academy had actually chosen a winner by the time his odds dropped this far (or, indeed, that they have chosen one yet); if this is based on any 'insider knowledge' than at best it might suggest he's one of the shortlisted authors. Beyond that: Trevor is one of the closest-to-home contenders for British punters to put their money on, so it's distinctly possible money was put on him more or less just for that reason (Tom Stoppard's odds have also improved). Still, the jump is a pretty impressive one.
"We had to slash his odds to 20/1 but this did nothing to abate the flow of money and he's now into 8/1. It bears all the hallmarks of a good, old-fashioned gamble which we've become accustomed to seeing over the years when we bet on awards. That's not to say at all that there is anything untoward going on, merely that there are people out there who thought the odds looked appealing. Often when odds shorten so dramatically it adds to the intrigue for those who like the idea of it being a 'hot tip'."
Among the names listed at Ladbrokes, the ones whose odds have improved most are:
| Name | 22 Aug. | 4 Oct. |
|---|---|---|
| Murakami Haruki | 10/1 | 3/1 |
| Mo Yan | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| William Trevor | 100/1 | 10/1 |
| Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| Nádas Péter | 33/1 | 14/1 |
| Tom Stoppard | 66/1 | 16/1 |
| Milan Kundera | 66/1 | 16/1 |
(I refuse to list Bob Dylan -- who improved from 33/1 to 10/1 thanks to the generosity of people who aren't interested in making any money off of who wins the Nobel Prize, but rather are just looking for an easy way to simply donate money to Ladbrokes (since that's what they're in effect doing).)
Before you get all excited and start reading too much into this, note that almost all the other names have had no odds-movement whatsoever -- suggesting very limited betting so far. Also worth considering: except for the two front-runners, Unibet, which also takes Nobel bets doesn't offer any of the big movers from Ladbrokes -- they don't even bother listing Trevor, Ngũgĩ, Nádas, Stoppard, and Kundera. As important: if there were significant betting, then the odds would converge (i.e. everyone who thought Mo Yan would win would bet at Ladbrokes, everyone betting on Murakami at Unibet, until the odds were roughly the same at both betting shops -- they're not right now); as is the 'market' looks suspiciously thin (as also the Ladbrokes Dylan-odds suggest: if you really believed he had any chance you'd bet your money on him at Unibet, where you'd get a considerably higher payout for the same wager).
What's really striking to me is that Ladbrokes doesn't seem to have added any names since they opened betting (well, aside from E.L.James at a joking 500/1) -- last year (and in previous years) there were numerous and regular additions along the way. While they have a strong starting list, it's surprising that they haven't really picked up any new names -- either from various public Nobel-discussions or stray Stockholm gossip. I imagine names will still be added (Mahmoud Dowlatabadi ! Krasznahorkai László ! Álvaro Mutis !), but it's odd that practically none have been so far; the fact that none have suggests there simply isn't much good gossip floating around yet (or all that much general betting interest either).
The Swedish Academy man in charge, Peter Englund, has a weblog, but there's not much to divine from the entries there either -- though in the most recent entry he does describe running into last year's laureate, Tomas Tranströmer, and mentioning: "Jag berättar att snart kommer någon annan ta hans roll som “Årets Nobelpristagare”." (yeah, that's not really at all helpful ...).
I'm still hedging my bets; nothing I've sniffed is very suggestive so far, though if pressed I'd bet even money that Mo Yan is one of the shortlisted authors (and William Trevor isn't) -- but that's about as far as I am willing to go for now. But now is when it really starts to get interesting, and odds (and inside-information-getting-out) can start changing fast.
Stay tuned !