Nobel Prize countdown: two days and counting

       - We know the Swedish Academy has settled on who to award the Nobel Prize in Literature to, and that the winner's name will be announced on Thursday, 11 October, at 13:00. (I'd suggest that the (relatively) early date indicates a not particularly controversial choice -- i.e. they didn't have to argue about it for too long, i.e. there was no strong opposition. Of course, last time there appears to have been strong disagreement -- the choice of Jelinek -- they announced on 7 October .....)

       - At his weblog, Swedish Academy man-in-charge Peter Englund offers two bits of 'kuriosa', but nothing revealing.

        - As far as the betting shops go: Unibet appear to have closed their book yesterday -- which is very early to pull the plug.
       The Ladbrokes odds have seen more movement now, with Murakami Haruki the heavy favorite at 2/1 at day's end yesterday, and William Trevor moving up a bit more (7/1), followed by Mo Yan, Alice Munro, and Nádas Péter at 8/1. Other movers include Thomas Pynchon (from 20/1 to 12/1), Assia Djebar (20/1 to 14/1), Milan Kundera (66/1 to 16/1), and ... Olga Tokarczuk (100/1 to 20/1).
       More-or-less Swedish betting shop -- closer to the action ? -- Betsson have a book too -- and their favorite, by a hair, is ... Joyce Carol Oates (a stagnant 33/1 at Ladbrokes -- those were her starting odds, too [note that this mention here will be enough to see her get some action and probably change the odds on her by the time you read this]). The Betsson list is pretty thin, but does cover several of the likely contender-names.

       - New articles of interest include:

• Hephzibah Anderson offers an overview in Bookies Tout Murakami as Nobels Flirt With Literary Irrelevance at Bloomberg
  
  
• Raymond Zhou wonders Is Mo Yan man enough for the Nobel ? in China Daily -- asking: "is Mo Yan a spineless literary hack who kowtows to authorities, or does he maintain his independence in his own way ?" -- as the Chinese continue to examine Mo's chances from every possible angle
  
  
• At Slate Brian Palmer manages to write an article on The Worst Nobel Prize -- without mentioning a single literature laureate !

       And, so, what do I think ? Here a run-down of some of the possible contenders:

       Murakami Haruki:

• Pro: Internationally recognized, decent range, from a country/area that hasn't won in a while
• Contra: Too 'popular' an author; Swedish Academy seems to prefer a more distinctive voice (but note that no other Japanese authors would seem to rate at this time)
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 2/1
• Chances: Good - a Murakami Nobel looks like a good bet somwhere down the line, and 1Q84 might have been enough to already put him over the top

       Mo Yan:

• Pro: Leading Chinese writer, international appeal (even if English editions tend to get edited/cut down to size, sigh ...)
• Contra: Other Chinese authors (Ma Jian, Bei Dao) politically more palatable for Swedish Academy
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 8/1
• Chances: Slim - I think he might have been in the shortlist mix, but new to it (and they rarely pick a first-time-shortlisted author); still, if the Academy is looking beyond Europe he's an obvious possible choice

       Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o:

• Pro: Solid body of work, important figure, also writes in an African language
• Contra: Early writing arguably too political and limited
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 12/1
• Chances: Good - I still think Ngũgĩ is the leading sub-Saharan African contender (though Achebe and Farah would certainly be worthy choices too) and his Gikuyu magnum opus, Wizard of the Crow should be enough to put him over the top

       Adonis:

• Pro: Leading Arabic-language poet; considered a contender for ages already
• Contra: The current Syrian turmoil might lead the Academy to shy away from choosing him; they gave it to a poet last year
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 14/1
• Chances: Slim - I just can't see them giving it to a Syrian author, given the current situation

       Ko Un:

• Pro: Leading Korean poet; considered a contender for ages already
• Contra: They gave it to a poet last year
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 14/1
• Chances: Good - a safe and worthy east Asian pick -- though I have my doubts about them awarding it to a poet two years in a row

       Mahmoud Dowlatabadi:

• Pro: Leading author from a region that's never won the prize; a very impressive body of work
• Contra: Not enough has been translated/is known abroad; did anyone even nominate him for the prize ?
• Current Ladbrokes odds: not listed
• Chances: Slim - The Colonel-author is a longtime local favorite, but still trails in the international-recognition area -- and its unclear that anyone would even have nominated him. While he would make my most-worthy shortlist, it's not clear that he has enough traction to figure in these proceedings

       Juan Goytisolo:

• Pro: Incredible body of work, displaying an impressive range; Maghreb-connection makes him (slightly) more than just a European author
• Contra: He's surely been in the running for ages and hasn't gotten it yet; arguably he's ticked off too many people/institutions
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 100/1
• Chances: Good - despite the Ladbrokes odds, Goytisolo is surely among the handful of most-deserving-authors who haven't won the prize

       Amos Oz:

• Pro: Impressive body of work; no Hebrew-writing author has won for nearly half a century; of the Israeli contenders -- Grossman, Yehoshua -- clearly seems the strongest
• Contra: He's surely been in the running for ages and hasn't gotten it yet
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 16/1
• Chances: Good - another in the most-deserving-authors who haven't won the prize ranks, and certainly worthy

       The US authors: Roth, Pynchon, McCarthy, DeLillo, (Oates):

• Pro: Americans arguably due, arguably worthy
• Contra: Arguably all too one-note (even if that one note is, in the case of Oates, simply excess)
• Current Ladbrokes odds: from 12/1 (Pynchon) to 33/1 (DeLillo, Oates)
• Chances: Slim - sure, maybe they figure it's time to toss a Nobel to the US (in which case Roth seems the most likely candidate), but I don't see it

       The Canadians: Atwood, Munro:

• Pro: solid bodies of work, under-represented region, widespread appeal (and being women surely can't hurt)
• Contra: maybe just short of Nobel stature
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 8/1 (Munro) and 16/1 (Atwood)
• Chances: Middling - either one would mix things up nicely, an English-writing female author from not-quite-the-US -- but I don't really see it

       Nádas Péter:

• Pro: Impressive body of work
• Contra: Hungarian -- and between Kertész Imre and recent eastern European (Herta Müller) and central European (Jelinek) winners, I just can't see it
• Current Ladbrokes odds: 8/1
• Chances: Slim - I just can't see them giving it to a Hungarian author -- but he would be a worthy choice

       Ibrahim al-Koni:

• Pro: Leading Arabic-writing author; quite well-known internationally; something pretty different from most of what the other contending authors are writing
• Contra: Not well-known enough, too limited a body of work
• Current Ladbrokes odds: not listed
• Chances: Slim - the Academy surely must be on the constant lookout for an Arabic-writing author, and al-Koni would be one of the authors who might make sense this year -- less controversial that Adonis or any of the Egyptians (like Gamal al-Ghitani) -- but maybe too much of an outlier

        Other names to keep in mind (Ladbrokes odds):

• William Trevor (7/1)
• Ismail Kadare (14/1)
• Milan Kundera (16/1)
• Les Murray (20/1)
• Javier Marías (66/1)
• Claudio Magris (66/1)

       Writers of interest but who I don't think have a chance:

• Cees Nooteboom (12/1; solid body of work, but pales when compared to the great and bypassed Dutch authors; they're going to have to wait a decade or two, when Arnon Grunberg will be their top contender)
• Tom Stoppard (16/1; I'd like to see it, but the Swedish Academy seems to like their drama more radical (Fo, Pinter, Jelinek))
• Enrique Vila-Matas (20/1; great stuff, but too consistently variations on similar themes)
• Peter Handke (33/1; fellow Austrian Jelinek got it, and Handke may just still be too politically toxic)
• Gerald Murnane (50/1; much as I love Barley Patch, the body of work probably just isn't big enough to get a Nobel)

       Writers who are too young/haven't published enough:

• Olga Tokarczuk (20/1)
• Mircea Cărtărescu (25/1)
• Karl Ove Knausgård (33/1)
• Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie (50/1)

       'Authors' who have no chance of getting the prize but are listed at Ladbrokes:

• Bob Dylan (10/1) (I'm embarrassed even to mention him in conjunction with the Nobel Prize ...)
• Andrea Camilleri (50/1)
• Herman Koch (66/1)
• Jonathan Littell (100/1)
• E.L.James (500/1)

       More tomorrow .....