Tomorrow at 13:00, Stockholm time, the winner of this year's Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced.
So what of note has happened since yesterday, as the announcement draws near ?
- The Ladbrokes odds have shown a bit more movement -- and the biggest surprise is that Nádas Péter has moved up to 5/2. I have no idea where this is coming from -- he isn't really figuring in many of the ongoing discussions -- so that's something to consider; if any movement so far looks like it's leak-led, it would be this one. There have been other jumps -- John Banville is up from 66/1 to 14/1 in just the past day -- but the Nádas is the one that might be worth paying attention to. It will be interesting to see whether there are any last minute big swings (since leaks become more likely as the announcement approaches).
- The AFP has Camille Bas-Wohlert's widely reprinted article, under headlines such as Time for a woman to win Nobel Literature Prize, say pundits, which has a couple of local commenters (not always of the very helpful sort: "'You can never know or guess how the Academy is thinking,' Lina Kalmteg, a literary critic for Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet, told AFP").
- The Fictional Woods helpfully sums up a Svenska Dagbladet video discussion, in Entertaining and well-informed discussion at Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet among a couple of top level critics and publishers about the Nobel (there's also a Swedish summary at Svenska Dagbladet's Kultur Blogg).
Among the observations: "The stuff about not knowing which Thursday it's announced is probably largely for show these days" (though I think they made a big mistake announcing it on the 11th this year: just consider how many prizes and shortlists I've reported on in the past two days -- and just this morning they're announcing the shortlists for the American National Book Awards; sure, the Nobel will get good attention at the Frankfurt Book Fair, where much of the publishing industry is assembled -- but surely the press coverage would be better next week, when they'd have the whole Nobel -- and most of the literary -- field all to themselves).
Also: the consensus appears to be that: "Favourites this year: Adonis, Roth and Oates are out" (little surprise there) .
And I'm not surprised that: "The speculation should have started in earnest last week, but this year it's been unusually quiet at the newspapers since everyone just discusses Ladbrokes odds instead; 'the betting firms have ruined it for us know-it-alls.'" (The Ladbrokes/betting focus definitely skews discussion, and I think people have gotten too focused on it: it's a good springboard, but shouldn't be the be-all, end-all.)
- I like how the Prague Writers' Festival site has latched onto the Nobel, suggesting PWF Candidates | 2012 Nobel Prize in Literature (and, hey, with names like Maraini, Djebar, Bonnefoy, they might be onto something ...).
So what are my final thoughts ? (After yesterday's thoughts .....)
I'm intrigued by the Nádas-possibility (and I think he'd be a good choice), and figure Murakami stands a decent chance; I don't think Mo Yan will get it (though as I've noted for years, he's probably the strongest Chinese candidate). I don't think a poet will get it a second year in a row (if one did, my favorites would be Ko Un and Les Murray).
So my very personal shortlist of candidates comes down to:
 Watch those odds, and stay tuned.
So what of note has happened since yesterday, as the announcement draws near ?
- The Ladbrokes odds have shown a bit more movement -- and the biggest surprise is that Nádas Péter has moved up to 5/2. I have no idea where this is coming from -- he isn't really figuring in many of the ongoing discussions -- so that's something to consider; if any movement so far looks like it's leak-led, it would be this one. There have been other jumps -- John Banville is up from 66/1 to 14/1 in just the past day -- but the Nádas is the one that might be worth paying attention to. It will be interesting to see whether there are any last minute big swings (since leaks become more likely as the announcement approaches).
- The AFP has Camille Bas-Wohlert's widely reprinted article, under headlines such as Time for a woman to win Nobel Literature Prize, say pundits, which has a couple of local commenters (not always of the very helpful sort: "'You can never know or guess how the Academy is thinking,' Lina Kalmteg, a literary critic for Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet, told AFP").
- The Fictional Woods helpfully sums up a Svenska Dagbladet video discussion, in Entertaining and well-informed discussion at Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet among a couple of top level critics and publishers about the Nobel (there's also a Swedish summary at Svenska Dagbladet's Kultur Blogg).
Among the observations: "The stuff about not knowing which Thursday it's announced is probably largely for show these days" (though I think they made a big mistake announcing it on the 11th this year: just consider how many prizes and shortlists I've reported on in the past two days -- and just this morning they're announcing the shortlists for the American National Book Awards; sure, the Nobel will get good attention at the Frankfurt Book Fair, where much of the publishing industry is assembled -- but surely the press coverage would be better next week, when they'd have the whole Nobel -- and most of the literary -- field all to themselves).
Also: the consensus appears to be that: "Favourites this year: Adonis, Roth and Oates are out" (little surprise there) .
And I'm not surprised that: "The speculation should have started in earnest last week, but this year it's been unusually quiet at the newspapers since everyone just discusses Ladbrokes odds instead; 'the betting firms have ruined it for us know-it-alls.'" (The Ladbrokes/betting focus definitely skews discussion, and I think people have gotten too focused on it: it's a good springboard, but shouldn't be the be-all, end-all.)
- I like how the Prague Writers' Festival site has latched onto the Nobel, suggesting PWF Candidates | 2012 Nobel Prize in Literature (and, hey, with names like Maraini, Djebar, Bonnefoy, they might be onto something ...).
So what are my final thoughts ? (After yesterday's thoughts .....)
I'm intrigued by the Nádas-possibility (and I think he'd be a good choice), and figure Murakami stands a decent chance; I don't think Mo Yan will get it (though as I've noted for years, he's probably the strongest Chinese candidate). I don't think a poet will get it a second year in a row (if one did, my favorites would be Ko Un and Les Murray).
So my very personal shortlist of candidates comes down to:
- Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o (Ladbrokes odds: 12/1) - strong all-around contender
- Juan Goytisolo (Ladbrokes odds: 100/1) - most impressive body of work
- Amos Oz (Ladbrokes odds: 16/1) - best safe, uncontroversial choice
- Mahmoud Dowlatabadi (no Ladbrokes odds) - personal favorite
- Anita Desai (no Ladbrokes odds) - under the radar candidate: she's been Booker-shortlisted three times and between Indian/multi-cultural background, quality of work, and sex would make for a plausible winner (ahead of any other Indian candidate, I'd say)
 Watch those odds, and stay tuned.