There's less than a month until the earliest date the Swedish Academy could announce this year's Nobel Prize in Literature laureate, and finally Ladbrokes has released its odds for the prize (note that they've already changed the URL once for this, but it's there on the site) -- the traditional starting-point for wild speculation, conspiracy (and other) theories, and fun official statements from Swedish Academicians sure to confuse, confound, and irritate.
A quick reminder of how things work: the Swedish Academy put together a list of, as the guy in charge, Peter Englund, reported, 195 eligible authors in the spring, including 48 first-time nominees (who, so rumor has it, tradition has it aren't seriously considered) -- compared to 210 authors and 46 first-timers in 2012. As they explain: in April they pared that down to a 'preliminary list' of 15 to 20 candidates, and then in May they settled on a definitive list of candidates -- "of five names as a rule". Then everyone spent the past couple of months reading the works of these five authors, and in the fall the debating starts. Note, however, that the winner is only settled on at the last get-togethers, usually in early October -- so at this time there is a list of five contenders, but no winner.
The Swedish Academy doesn't reveal the names of anyone along the way -- not the submitted authors, not the preliminary list, not the remaining five. Or they try not to, anyway -- last year some of the names that appeared early on the betting sheets, like Darcia Maraini and eventual winner Mo Yan, probably slipped out along the way. And while there's no way of guessing the winner yet, maybe there are some signs pointing to some of the final five ... hence also always the interest in the Ladbrokes list, usually the most reliable of the betting lists (though Betsson has a hometown edge -- and they also offer odds, as does betsafe).
So what to make of this year's Ladbrokes' list ? Well, for one, they seem to have taken the kitchen sink approach, offering odds on 116 authors (but at least offering 100/1 -- i.e. a good return -- on 83 of those). Disappointingly, the list is largely one of where-we-left-off-last-year -- same names, by and large similar odds.
The top ten and their opening odds are:
The one stand-out is Joyce Carol Oates. Last I checked her odds at Ladbrokes last year, a few hours before the winning announcement, she rated only 33/1 -- but, as mentioned to me on Twitter, someone did report her odds shooting up to 9/1 just before betting closed -- a last-minute surge suggesting some leakage that she was at least one of the finalists. Note also that she was the closing favorite at Betsson last year, too, just ahead of Murakami (4.50 to 4.60).
Oates wouldn't seem the likeliest of American contenders, but the betting consensus rating her so high suggests there might be something to this -- more plausible, too, because of all the authors whose books are hard to hide, she certainly ranks right up there, simply because there are so many of them (in other words: it wouldn't take much for more than one Swedish Academician to be spied reading one of her books (or lugging around three dozen of them ...), enough to attract the gossip-mongers, and bookies' attention). It's also worth noting that a lot of her work has been translated into Swedish (not a prerequisite, but it can't hurt if she is locally widely known and accessible) -- and that her name has certainly been floated, seriously, before (even in Swedish papers -- recall Magnus Sjöholm's 2011 article, Nobelpriset: Min favorit är Joyce Carol Oates (okay, that's only half-serious -- but still)).
Otherwise the list is kind of a disappointment -- practically no interesting new names (Duong Thu Huong, Mia Couto, and César Aira (all at 100/1) are the most interesting selections that didn't rate last year) or fun new guesses. Bob Dylan is, inevitably, listed, but there's only a single Russian author -- the perennial (and way past his prime) Yevgeny Yevtushenko. The only Japanese author is Murakami, and while Peter Englund also noted that they made a special effort to get African academics to propose authors, that's not reflected in what's on offer here, as it's practically just the usual Africans (such as Assia Djebar, Nuruddin Farah, Ngugi wa Thiong'o, and (too) youngster Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie). The Arabic-writing contingent is limited to Adonis, Elias Khoury, and Ghassan Zaqtan.
So: missing are any number of Russians (beginning or ending with Mikhail Shishkin) and Arabic writers (Ibrahim al-Koni, Gamal al-Ghitani, Bensalem Himmich, to name just a trio I'd like to see being discussed), any other Hungarians (Krasznahorkai, Esterházy), local favorites such as Mahmoud Dowlatabadi or Ayi Kwei Armah (admittedly an outlier), among a whole host of other names (and remember: Ladbrokes list 116 !).
No good gossip has reached my ears yet, and the betting lists don't seem to be particularly revealing (yet) -- though there's enough thin evidence here that I'd bet even money that Oates is one of the final five (which also has implications for the other American candidates -- would they have a second American novelist in the top five ?). As to other serious contenders -- honestly, I think there might be some names in the running that haven't made these (unimaginative) lists.
For those who want to get in on the betting action early, there are quite a few 100/1 bets that might be worth placing: definitely punching in with odds well below their weight are: Duong Thu Huong, Juan Goytisolo, Claudio Magris, and Javier Marías.
More soon !
A quick reminder of how things work: the Swedish Academy put together a list of, as the guy in charge, Peter Englund, reported, 195 eligible authors in the spring, including 48 first-time nominees (who, so rumor has it, tradition has it aren't seriously considered) -- compared to 210 authors and 46 first-timers in 2012. As they explain: in April they pared that down to a 'preliminary list' of 15 to 20 candidates, and then in May they settled on a definitive list of candidates -- "of five names as a rule". Then everyone spent the past couple of months reading the works of these five authors, and in the fall the debating starts. Note, however, that the winner is only settled on at the last get-togethers, usually in early October -- so at this time there is a list of five contenders, but no winner.
The Swedish Academy doesn't reveal the names of anyone along the way -- not the submitted authors, not the preliminary list, not the remaining five. Or they try not to, anyway -- last year some of the names that appeared early on the betting sheets, like Darcia Maraini and eventual winner Mo Yan, probably slipped out along the way. And while there's no way of guessing the winner yet, maybe there are some signs pointing to some of the final five ... hence also always the interest in the Ladbrokes list, usually the most reliable of the betting lists (though Betsson has a hometown edge -- and they also offer odds, as does betsafe).
So what to make of this year's Ladbrokes' list ? Well, for one, they seem to have taken the kitchen sink approach, offering odds on 116 authors (but at least offering 100/1 -- i.e. a good return -- on 83 of those). Disappointingly, the list is largely one of where-we-left-off-last-year -- same names, by and large similar odds.
The top ten and their opening odds are:
- Murakami Haruki 3/1
- Joyce Carol Oates 6/1
- Nádas Péter 7/1
- Ko Un 10/1
- Alice Munro 12/1
- Adonis 14/1
- Assia Djebar 14/1
- Amos Oz 16/1
- Philip Roth 16/1
- Thomas Pynchon 20/1
The one stand-out is Joyce Carol Oates. Last I checked her odds at Ladbrokes last year, a few hours before the winning announcement, she rated only 33/1 -- but, as mentioned to me on Twitter, someone did report her odds shooting up to 9/1 just before betting closed -- a last-minute surge suggesting some leakage that she was at least one of the finalists. Note also that she was the closing favorite at Betsson last year, too, just ahead of Murakami (4.50 to 4.60).
Oates wouldn't seem the likeliest of American contenders, but the betting consensus rating her so high suggests there might be something to this -- more plausible, too, because of all the authors whose books are hard to hide, she certainly ranks right up there, simply because there are so many of them (in other words: it wouldn't take much for more than one Swedish Academician to be spied reading one of her books (or lugging around three dozen of them ...), enough to attract the gossip-mongers, and bookies' attention). It's also worth noting that a lot of her work has been translated into Swedish (not a prerequisite, but it can't hurt if she is locally widely known and accessible) -- and that her name has certainly been floated, seriously, before (even in Swedish papers -- recall Magnus Sjöholm's 2011 article, Nobelpriset: Min favorit är Joyce Carol Oates (okay, that's only half-serious -- but still)).
Otherwise the list is kind of a disappointment -- practically no interesting new names (Duong Thu Huong, Mia Couto, and César Aira (all at 100/1) are the most interesting selections that didn't rate last year) or fun new guesses. Bob Dylan is, inevitably, listed, but there's only a single Russian author -- the perennial (and way past his prime) Yevgeny Yevtushenko. The only Japanese author is Murakami, and while Peter Englund also noted that they made a special effort to get African academics to propose authors, that's not reflected in what's on offer here, as it's practically just the usual Africans (such as Assia Djebar, Nuruddin Farah, Ngugi wa Thiong'o, and (too) youngster Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie). The Arabic-writing contingent is limited to Adonis, Elias Khoury, and Ghassan Zaqtan.
So: missing are any number of Russians (beginning or ending with Mikhail Shishkin) and Arabic writers (Ibrahim al-Koni, Gamal al-Ghitani, Bensalem Himmich, to name just a trio I'd like to see being discussed), any other Hungarians (Krasznahorkai, Esterházy), local favorites such as Mahmoud Dowlatabadi or Ayi Kwei Armah (admittedly an outlier), among a whole host of other names (and remember: Ladbrokes list 116 !).
No good gossip has reached my ears yet, and the betting lists don't seem to be particularly revealing (yet) -- though there's enough thin evidence here that I'd bet even money that Oates is one of the final five (which also has implications for the other American candidates -- would they have a second American novelist in the top five ?). As to other serious contenders -- honestly, I think there might be some names in the running that haven't made these (unimaginative) lists.
For those who want to get in on the betting action early, there are quite a few 100/1 bets that might be worth placing: definitely punching in with odds well below their weight are: Duong Thu Huong, Juan Goytisolo, Claudio Magris, and Javier Marías.
More soon !