So where are all the Nobel predictions ?
- Thomson Reuters boast of: "Having accurately forecast 27 Nobel Prize winners since its inception in 2002", but once again Thomson Reuters Predicts 2013 Nobel Laureates is limited to the scientific prizes (well: and economics); scroll down for their tips. (At least one author whose books are well-represented at the complete review is listed: Richard Posner, "For extending economic theories of regulation".)
- At the Nature news blog Nobel prize guessing game begins -- but, again, there are no literary guesses.
- There are a few discussion boards devoted to the topic, properly focused on the literature prize: the World Literature Forum's Nobel Prize in Literature 2013 Speculation-thread has over 230 entries (but is, in part, rather ... digressive), and there's also the less active thread at The Fictional Woods, Nobel Prize 2013. Meanwhile, the Words without Borders The 2013 Nobel Prize in Literature: Our Office Pool seems not to really have caught on.
- There are a few (but surprisingly few) pieces about various candidates' chances. Alexander K. Opicho's rather confused Why Ngugi wa Thiong'o 'won't bag Nobel Prize' in The Standard -- with insights such as: "None of Murakami's works have been translated into English but they are selling well in Japan" and the suggestion that Wangari Maathai and Barack Obama won the literature Nobel Prize -- sets the bar pretty low.
On the other hand, I'm certainly a huge fan of this Facebook page [via] in support of Mahmoud Dowlatabadi getting the Nobel -- and its 13,716 "likes" suggest I'm not alone. (I haven't seen whether other authors have Facebook pages supporting their candidacies; it probably won't sway the Swedish Academy, but I assume it can't hurt.)
So what about my predictions ? No really strong feelings yet, beyond seeing Oates and Ngũgĩ among the finalists; I could see -- with a heavy dose of wishful thinking -- the final five rounded out by Nádas, Murakami, and Marías. (One consequence of my pretty firm belief that Oates is in the final five: I don't think any other American is (i.e. yet again no Roth, no McCarthy, no Pynchon, no ... Dylan).)
I've made my case for Ngũgĩ often enough, but a few more observations about some of these others:
- I don't see Oates winning it, and I'm kind of surprised she'd be the pick of the Americans, but as I've mentioned, she's widely translated into Swedish -- i.e. a fairly prominent presence there. And this is a country where you can find pieces even making claims such as: Oates poesi håller Nobelprisklass earlier this year -- not something I've heard in the US, as far as I can recall.
- Nádas' Parallel Stories (see the Picador publicity page) has been coming out in Sweden over the past two years (in three volumes), with the final volume scheduled for release later this fall (see the Albert Bonniers publicity page) -- the kind of magnum opus that surely has kept him front and center in literary discussions over the past year.
As noted, it's still too early to call a winner -- as, presumably, the Swedish Academy hasn't even gotten that far yet -- and I'll certainly have more thoughts as the announcement-date approaches.
- Thomson Reuters boast of: "Having accurately forecast 27 Nobel Prize winners since its inception in 2002", but once again Thomson Reuters Predicts 2013 Nobel Laureates is limited to the scientific prizes (well: and economics); scroll down for their tips. (At least one author whose books are well-represented at the complete review is listed: Richard Posner, "For extending economic theories of regulation".)
- At the Nature news blog Nobel prize guessing game begins -- but, again, there are no literary guesses.
- There are a few discussion boards devoted to the topic, properly focused on the literature prize: the World Literature Forum's Nobel Prize in Literature 2013 Speculation-thread has over 230 entries (but is, in part, rather ... digressive), and there's also the less active thread at The Fictional Woods, Nobel Prize 2013. Meanwhile, the Words without Borders The 2013 Nobel Prize in Literature: Our Office Pool seems not to really have caught on.
- There are a few (but surprisingly few) pieces about various candidates' chances. Alexander K. Opicho's rather confused Why Ngugi wa Thiong'o 'won't bag Nobel Prize' in The Standard -- with insights such as: "None of Murakami's works have been translated into English but they are selling well in Japan" and the suggestion that Wangari Maathai and Barack Obama won the literature Nobel Prize -- sets the bar pretty low.
On the other hand, I'm certainly a huge fan of this Facebook page [via] in support of Mahmoud Dowlatabadi getting the Nobel -- and its 13,716 "likes" suggest I'm not alone. (I haven't seen whether other authors have Facebook pages supporting their candidacies; it probably won't sway the Swedish Academy, but I assume it can't hurt.)
So what about my predictions ? No really strong feelings yet, beyond seeing Oates and Ngũgĩ among the finalists; I could see -- with a heavy dose of wishful thinking -- the final five rounded out by Nádas, Murakami, and Marías. (One consequence of my pretty firm belief that Oates is in the final five: I don't think any other American is (i.e. yet again no Roth, no McCarthy, no Pynchon, no ... Dylan).)
I've made my case for Ngũgĩ often enough, but a few more observations about some of these others:
- I don't see Oates winning it, and I'm kind of surprised she'd be the pick of the Americans, but as I've mentioned, she's widely translated into Swedish -- i.e. a fairly prominent presence there. And this is a country where you can find pieces even making claims such as: Oates poesi håller Nobelprisklass earlier this year -- not something I've heard in the US, as far as I can recall.
- Nádas' Parallel Stories (see the Picador publicity page) has been coming out in Sweden over the past two years (in three volumes), with the final volume scheduled for release later this fall (see the Albert Bonniers publicity page) -- the kind of magnum opus that surely has kept him front and center in literary discussions over the past year.
As noted, it's still too early to call a winner -- as, presumably, the Swedish Academy hasn't even gotten that far yet -- and I'll certainly have more thoughts as the announcement-date approaches.