So on the official Nobel Prize in Literature page they have a countdown clock that now reads:
In The Guardian a few weeks ago Andrew Martin reported on Highbrow betting: gambling on cultural events is on the up, providing some actual numbers -- such as that at Ladbrokes:
Through yesterday, the (few) movers were (opening odds in parentheses):
Odds at Betsson are roughly similar -- though while Ngũgĩ has made a corresponding jump (in his odds, if not on the out-of-order (last I checked it) list), Marías has not -- he can still be had at 100/1. (Any punter worth his salt would of course put his money where he can get the better odds -- great discrepancies in odds suggest someone isn't even bothering to shop around .....)
Paddy Power has now also listed odds -- fewer choices, but better odds on some of the favorites (even as they ignore Nádas), so worth a look, but nothing really promising, movement- or other-wise.
So what do the odds-lists tell us so far this year ? As usual, not too much -- but as usual, too, they're worth paying at least some attention to, particularly the (near-endless ...) Ladbrokes list. The winner is usually found on the list, and often found pretty high up from early on; recall that few were paying much attention to Tomas Tranströmer in 2011, but when betting opened at Ladbrokes he was their second-favorite; in 2012 Mo Yan (and Cees Nooteboom) were second-favorites (behind Murakami). So there's decent reason to believe several of the finalists are among their top picks once again. Here my guess is once again on the number two -- at least as one of the finalists --, Joyce Carol Oates. Though it wouldn't surprise me if Murakami and/or Nádas rounded out that shortlist, too.
Early betting movement -- limited though it has been -- is only modestly suggestive, but the Ngũgĩ-jump, in particular, smells of insider information to me (helped by the fact that he's surely also a serious contender). (The Marías less so, because, as noted, you can still get him at 100/1 elsewhere -- and anyone who was serious about their betting would have spread their money around.)
Of course, now is when it really gets interesting -- and when sharp changes in the odds begin to look more suspicious. At some point in the next week or two they will have decided on a winner -- and then they will have to try to keep that information secret; we'll see how well they manage.
2013 Literature Prize will be announced at the earliest in: 7 days'At the earliest' are the operative words, of course -- it'll be a Thursday, but the 10th of October is more likely (and the 17th an outside possibility) -- unless they can come to some quick agreement. So no reason to panic yet -- you still have time to place your bets or hurl around your wild theories; it's unlikely they have come to an agreement on the winner yet. (They'll announce that they'll announce the prize that Thursday on the Monday of whatever week they choose, so we'll have a few days of warning/serious countdown time.)
In The Guardian a few weeks ago Andrew Martin reported on Highbrow betting: gambling on cultural events is on the up, providing some actual numbers -- such as that at Ladbrokes:
Betting on the Nobel prize for literature is up from just over £1,000 in 2005 to approaching £20,000.The Ladbrokes odds have, for the most part, not changed much since they were first posted, suggesting betting action is still pretty light this season. The trio of Murakami, Oates, and Nádas continue to lead the way, their odds all unchanged since day one (i.e. when the odds were first posted).
Through yesterday, the (few) movers were (opening odds in parentheses):
- Assia Djebar 10/1 (14/1)
- Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o 20/1 (50/1)
- Javier Marías 33/1 (100/1)
Odds at Betsson are roughly similar -- though while Ngũgĩ has made a corresponding jump (in his odds, if not on the out-of-order (last I checked it) list), Marías has not -- he can still be had at 100/1. (Any punter worth his salt would of course put his money where he can get the better odds -- great discrepancies in odds suggest someone isn't even bothering to shop around .....)
Paddy Power has now also listed odds -- fewer choices, but better odds on some of the favorites (even as they ignore Nádas), so worth a look, but nothing really promising, movement- or other-wise.
So what do the odds-lists tell us so far this year ? As usual, not too much -- but as usual, too, they're worth paying at least some attention to, particularly the (near-endless ...) Ladbrokes list. The winner is usually found on the list, and often found pretty high up from early on; recall that few were paying much attention to Tomas Tranströmer in 2011, but when betting opened at Ladbrokes he was their second-favorite; in 2012 Mo Yan (and Cees Nooteboom) were second-favorites (behind Murakami). So there's decent reason to believe several of the finalists are among their top picks once again. Here my guess is once again on the number two -- at least as one of the finalists --, Joyce Carol Oates. Though it wouldn't surprise me if Murakami and/or Nádas rounded out that shortlist, too.
Early betting movement -- limited though it has been -- is only modestly suggestive, but the Ngũgĩ-jump, in particular, smells of insider information to me (helped by the fact that he's surely also a serious contender). (The Marías less so, because, as noted, you can still get him at 100/1 elsewhere -- and anyone who was serious about their betting would have spread their money around.)
Of course, now is when it really gets interesting -- and when sharp changes in the odds begin to look more suspicious. At some point in the next week or two they will have decided on a winner -- and then they will have to try to keep that information secret; we'll see how well they manage.