Nobel notes

       So, at the earliest, we'll learn who this year's Nobel Prize in Literature laureate is next Thursday (we'll learn on Monday whether they'll be announcing it on the 9th; if they remain silent, then we wait another week, the announcement then likely to come on the 16th) -- but we learn already that the winner-announcement has become such a circus that Swedish Academy point-man Peter Englund has announced (at his weblog) that, unlike in previous years, the announcement-ceremony will not be come one, come all, as he is barring the general public (and "skolklasser, föreningar etc" ('school classes, clubs, etc')). The bus-groups that apparently joined in have proved too much for the Swedish Academy, so only: "media och branschfolk" (journalists and those in the trade ("branschfolk" -- what a great word !)) will be welcome for the spectacle.
       You can, of course, watch the spectacle live on their excellent webcast, as I will be doing -- but it seems a shame that they don't try to accommodate the eager crowds. Why not take advantage of the interest and play to the crowds ? Yes, Englund opening the doors to the Börssalen and then making his little speech makes for a good show -- but why not gather the crowd out front and have Englund stride to a window (or balcony, if they have it) and reveal the winner to the cheering (jeering ?) masses that way ?

       I discussed the betting-situation a few days ago, and action has picked up since then, with more names being added to the various lists, and some shifts in odds (which one shouldn't read too much into, but are certainly worth paying some attention to). A reminder, again, that it's unlikely a winner has been selected yet (though one might be in the next few days), so for now we can only really guess at who the finalists might be.
       So, the betting observations:

• At Ladbrokes the top seeds have flipped places: Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o (whose name they still can't spell ...) is now the 4/1 favorite, with Murakami Haruki at 5/1. Ismail Kadare is now also listed -- and, at 10/1 among the favorites. Another new name is Patrick Modiano -- last seen as a 100/1 longshot in 2013, now popping up at 16/1 Meanwhile, Peter Handke has moved up from 50/1 to 16/1 -- but he's been getting lots of coverage for his recent International Ibsen Award debacle win, which might have contributed to that.
  
  
• PaddyPower doesn't seem to have had much movement.
  
  
• Unibet odds have also been pretty stable, except that a few new names have popped up, such as Paul Muldoon at 18/1

       (Unibet also offers specialty bets, like what country or continent the winner will be from. 30/1 on the winner being 25 or under is not a good bet/fair odds.)

       In trying to figure out who might be in the final running -- i.e. on the Swedish Academy's shortlist -- I think several of those listed on the betting sheets can be counted out:

• Joyce Carol Oates and Margaret Atwood: I don't see an English-writing North American woman winning two years in a row; I think the Swedish Academy wants a bit more variety than that
  
  
• Peter Handke: the Ibsen Award to-do -- and the fact that he won it in the first place, another Scandinavian international literary prize worth mega-bucks (2.5 million Norwegian kroner, about US$390,000 at the latest exchange rate), probably put him out of the running (at least for the prize itself; he might well have made the shortlist, which they determined before all this blew up)
  
  
• Amos Oz: the political situation (and his remarks) were probably too heated around the time they settled on the finalists (late spring) for them to have wanted to deal with all that fall-out
  
  
• Bob Dylan: come on people -- Bob Dylan does not belong anywhere near this discussion, this year or any year (despite the annual crackpot claim to the contrary)

       I'm not sure about Adonis this year -- again, the politics might be too messy for them to want to get involved -- or Ko Un, the perennial Korean contender (since former winner Le Clézio has repeatedly gone on record as a fan of Korean literature and may well have nominated a Korean writer -- but most likely someone else, dividing whatever Korean support there might be at the Swedish Academy).

       Based on the limited buzz and the odds, I could see a shortlist that includes: Ngũgĩ, Murakami, Kadare, and Alexievich; possible other finalists: Modiano, Roth, Kundera, maybe even Handke (who, as noted, however, seems extremely unlikely to be considered prize-worthy this year). Maybe Nádas Péter ?
       Of course, several of my favorites aren't even being mentioned (or bet on) much this year: Mahmoud Dowlatabadi and Juan Goytisolo above all others (they seem the two most worthy possible winners, in my eyes), but also: Javier Marías (who at least rates odds, albeit not great ones), Krasznahorkai László, Mikhail Shishkin, Ibrahim al-Koni, or Ayi Kwei Armah.

       More thoughts soon.