Okay, everybody: now the fun starts -- Ladbrokes have posted odds on the 2012 Nobel Prize in Literature.
Just a few days ago I discussed the first Nobel Prize odds to go up, from Unibet -- but as I've repeatedly noted, Ladbrokes is the place where the action is (and the only betting shop that has consistently taken Nobel-betting fairly seriously). Anyone who is going to bet on this is going to do so there, and between the long list of contenders (over a hundred, compared to Unibet's forty-one -- though presumably both will continue to add names) and the (more) realistic odds -- plus enough betting action to actually move those odds -- Ladbrokes has the list to follow.
So what to make of the hundred-odd names and the opening odds ?
First of all, note there's a great deal of overlap with Unibet: Ladbrokes include pretty much everyone listed at Unibet, plus five dozen or so additional names. Disappointingly, Ladbrokes do also include Unibet's nonsense bets -- Daniel Kahneman (is everyone thinking of Daniel Kehlmann ? not that that is much more realistic ...) and Azar Nafisi (both here at 66/1 -- much better for bettors (well, not really: you're still throwing away your money)), as well as "Andrea Camillri" (yes, there are a number of misspelled names, including The Kindly Ones-author Jonathan Littell's (though I can see where they're coming from with 'Jonathan Little')).
Most disappointingly, Bob Dylan makes the list, at 33/1 (I understand why: it's easy money for them -- anyone who bets on Dylan is basically just handing the money over to them, zero risk to Ladbrokes -- but it's still disappointing).
Last year, the opening-day favorites were Adonis at 4/1 and eventual laureate Tomas Tranströmer at 9/2 (yes, he was an early strong favorite -- something to keep in mind).
This year the opening odds see the following favorites:
Otherwise, it's pretty much the usual mix of perennial favorites -- with pretty good starter odds, too, to entice you bettors ..... (It's been years since you could get Adonis at 14/1 .....)
Looking down the list, there are some tempting bets here: Juan Goytisolo and Elias Khoury are both at 100/1 (and interestingly Ladbrokes haven't listed Luis Goytisolo this year -- after often rating his odds better than brother Juan's the past few years). Claudio Magris, Javier Marías, Milan Kundera, even Tom Stoppard look pretty good at 66/1, too.
Good to see Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o, Chinua Achebe, Les Murray, and Enrique Vila-Matas highly rated -- but at 20/1 not quite as easy and obvious bets. Eduardo Mendoza Garriga at 20/1, on the other hand ? That should raise some eybrows (remember: he hasn't even figured on any of the betting lists in past years.).
It'll be interesting to see what names move -- and how soon. Some of these odds are tempting, so that might make for some early movers. And, of course, more names will be added to the mix, as Ladbrokes hear about who they might have overlooked (or get their hands on some good Swedish Academy gossip ...).
The early take-away: Mo Yan has gotten some attention somewhere (like I said, Ladbrokes hasn't even bothered considering him in previous years), as have Dacia Maraini and Eduardo Mendoza Garriga. With suspiciously good odds, these are certainly new names to consider.
No doubt the discussion forums at the World Literature Forum and the Fictional Woods will be abuzz with activity once this makes the rounds; I look forward to following all the speculation fun (and will add my two cents here regularly).
Just a few days ago I discussed the first Nobel Prize odds to go up, from Unibet -- but as I've repeatedly noted, Ladbrokes is the place where the action is (and the only betting shop that has consistently taken Nobel-betting fairly seriously). Anyone who is going to bet on this is going to do so there, and between the long list of contenders (over a hundred, compared to Unibet's forty-one -- though presumably both will continue to add names) and the (more) realistic odds -- plus enough betting action to actually move those odds -- Ladbrokes has the list to follow.
So what to make of the hundred-odd names and the opening odds ?
First of all, note there's a great deal of overlap with Unibet: Ladbrokes include pretty much everyone listed at Unibet, plus five dozen or so additional names. Disappointingly, Ladbrokes do also include Unibet's nonsense bets -- Daniel Kahneman (is everyone thinking of Daniel Kehlmann ? not that that is much more realistic ...) and Azar Nafisi (both here at 66/1 -- much better for bettors (well, not really: you're still throwing away your money)), as well as "Andrea Camillri" (yes, there are a number of misspelled names, including The Kindly Ones-author Jonathan Littell's (though I can see where they're coming from with 'Jonathan Little')).
Most disappointingly, Bob Dylan makes the list, at 33/1 (I understand why: it's easy money for them -- anyone who bets on Dylan is basically just handing the money over to them, zero risk to Ladbrokes -- but it's still disappointing).
Last year, the opening-day favorites were Adonis at 4/1 and eventual laureate Tomas Tranströmer at 9/2 (yes, he was an early strong favorite -- something to keep in mind).
This year the opening odds see the following favorites:
- Murakami Haruki at 10/1
- Mo Yan 12/1
- Cees Nooteboom 12/1
- Adonis 14/1
- Ismail Kadare 14/1
- Ko Un 14/1
- Dacia Maraini 16/1
- Cormac McCarthy 16/1
- Amos Oz 16/1
- Philip Roth 16/1
Otherwise, it's pretty much the usual mix of perennial favorites -- with pretty good starter odds, too, to entice you bettors ..... (It's been years since you could get Adonis at 14/1 .....)
Looking down the list, there are some tempting bets here: Juan Goytisolo and Elias Khoury are both at 100/1 (and interestingly Ladbrokes haven't listed Luis Goytisolo this year -- after often rating his odds better than brother Juan's the past few years). Claudio Magris, Javier Marías, Milan Kundera, even Tom Stoppard look pretty good at 66/1, too.
Good to see Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o, Chinua Achebe, Les Murray, and Enrique Vila-Matas highly rated -- but at 20/1 not quite as easy and obvious bets. Eduardo Mendoza Garriga at 20/1, on the other hand ? That should raise some eybrows (remember: he hasn't even figured on any of the betting lists in past years.).
It'll be interesting to see what names move -- and how soon. Some of these odds are tempting, so that might make for some early movers. And, of course, more names will be added to the mix, as Ladbrokes hear about who they might have overlooked (or get their hands on some good Swedish Academy gossip ...).
The early take-away: Mo Yan has gotten some attention somewhere (like I said, Ladbrokes hasn't even bothered considering him in previous years), as have Dacia Maraini and Eduardo Mendoza Garriga. With suspiciously good odds, these are certainly new names to consider.
No doubt the discussion forums at the World Literature Forum and the Fictional Woods will be abuzz with activity once this makes the rounds; I look forward to following all the speculation fun (and will add my two cents here regularly).