I discussed Ladbrokes finally setting odds for the Nobel Prize in Literature at length yesterday, and while there hasn't been much early odds movement (suggesting essentially no betting), Ladbrokes have, at this time (ca. 15:00 GMT, 5 September) suspended betting on Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o.
The only reason I can imagine them doing that is because suspiciously much action is being placed on him (at the generous odds of 50/1 -- remember that I tipped him to win a couple of years ago, and I figure he has figured on the shortlist before (i.e. he probably should have had better odds to begin with, this time around as well)).
[They have suspended betting on Nobel candidates in previous years, but as far as I can recall only much, much closer to the announcement day -- a day or two, or a few hours before.]
Note that the Swedish Academy has not yet decided on a winner -- as I also report today, they've neither reconvened to discuss the finalists yet nor, apparently, even finished up reading all the works by the finalists. So any concerns that someone has insider knowledge of who the winner is are premature -- there is no winner yet. Nevertheless, they do have a list of finalists -- very likely five names -- and heavy betting action on one author suggests somebody or several people feel very sure about that author being on the shortlist (unless of course the betting is on Bob Dylan (also available at 50/1, though in his case those are rip-off odds)).
Ladbrokes seems to do some decent business with the Nobel betting, but it probably wouldn't take too much money on a longshot (odds-wise) for them to suspend betting on the author in question temporarily; we'll get an idea of just how much action was placed when they open betting on him again -- at, no doubt, new and much lower odds (and I am very curious just how low those odds will go). [[Updated]: And now, less than half an hour later, betting on Ngũgĩ is open again -- and still at 50/1 -- suggesting ... much ado about nothing ?] Betting on a winner now at anything less than 10/1 seems like a waste of money; still, if someone is sure Ngũgĩ is a finalist ... well, I'd rate his chances pretty highly (as I do in any case -- regardless of the reason for the betting suspension, I'd have rated him far better than 50/1 to start with).
So now there are two names that I'm inclined to believe are among the five finalists, Ngũgĩ [updated: well, given that the odds on him didn't change after betting re-opened ... maybe not] and Oates. I look forward to the next indicators .....
Note that the Swedish Academy has not yet decided on a winner -- as I also report today, they've neither reconvened to discuss the finalists yet nor, apparently, even finished up reading all the works by the finalists. So any concerns that someone has insider knowledge of who the winner is are premature -- there is no winner yet. Nevertheless, they do have a list of finalists -- very likely five names -- and heavy betting action on one author suggests somebody or several people feel very sure about that author being on the shortlist (unless of course the betting is on Bob Dylan (also available at 50/1, though in his case those are rip-off odds)).
Ladbrokes seems to do some decent business with the Nobel betting, but it probably wouldn't take too much money on a longshot (odds-wise) for them to suspend betting on the author in question temporarily; we'll get an idea of just how much action was placed when they open betting on him again -- at, no doubt, new and much lower odds (and I am very curious just how low those odds will go). [[Updated]: And now, less than half an hour later, betting on Ngũgĩ is open again -- and still at 50/1 -- suggesting ... much ado about nothing ?] Betting on a winner now at anything less than 10/1 seems like a waste of money; still, if someone is sure Ngũgĩ is a finalist ... well, I'd rate his chances pretty highly (as I do in any case -- regardless of the reason for the betting suspension, I'd have rated him far better than 50/1 to start with).
So now there are two names that I'm inclined to believe are among the five finalists, Ngũgĩ [updated: well, given that the odds on him didn't change after betting re-opened ... maybe not] and Oates. I look forward to the next indicators .....