BTBA ... 2015 ?

       So, with the Best Translated Book Awards for books published in the US in 2013 behind us (see my previous mention) we can look ahead to this year's crop and the 2015 prize !
       My early guesses for the favorites for this year's prize weren't too bad -- of the four finalists I projected I picked the winner, another shortlisted title, and one that made the longlist (as to Where Tigers are at Home, I still don't understand what happened ...). I don't know that I can repeat that performance: so far, this year's batch looks decidedly weaker than the 2013 titles, and I don't feel nearly as (positively) strongly about many titles. A lot of the likely candidates also tend to be small and smaller books this year, with very few of the hefty titles we were considering for this year's prize; selecting from those seems more of a hit-and-miss exercise.
       So who are my early favorites this year ? There are a few obvious standouts, and I could see these five all making the shortlist (reviews of all these should be up in the next month or two):

• The Light and the Dark by Mikhail Shishkin: I had this as a premature longlist contender last year, but the US publication date was pushed to 2014 so it's up for next year's prize; given what I've seen so far it's hard to see this failing to make the shortlist
  
  
• The Symmetry Teacher by Andrei Bitov: my most-anticipated translation of the year, and the long overdue return of Bitov to English. And it has to do (sort of) with translation, too. I see this as a finalist.
  
  
• Stealth by Sonallah Ibrahim: this came out a few years ago from much-missed Aflame in the UK, but they were already on the verge of collapse then and it never got the attention it deserved. Now New Directions have picked it up for publication in the US, and it looks like a strong contender.
  
  
• The Man Who Loved Dogs by Leonardo Padura: a more ambitious work from Padura, who has been best-known for his mystery novels, I like the looks of this, and it's a neat story (Trotsky's assassin !); I think it stands a good chance.
  
  
• With My Dog Eyes by Hilda Hilst: Hilst has been getting a lot of buzz, and this might be the break-out volume for her. One drawback: she's her own competition, as her Letters from a Seducer also has a 2014 publication date.

       As far as longlist contenders go, quite a few books look like the have a good chance to fill one of the twenty-five open spots. There are four I haven't seen or heard much about but which I think look like likely candidates:

• Thirst by Mahmoud Dowlatabadi: I'm a big fan, and I'm pretty confident this one won't disappoint
  
  
• A Man: Klaus Klump by Gonçalo M. Tavares: the first in his 'O Reino'-tetralogy, but the last to make it into English. I've been very impressed by the other three, so I figure this should be worthwhile.
  
  
• Writers by Antoine Volodine: looks intriguing, and his books have usually gotten good attention from the BTBA judges, so this might be one to look out for.
  
  
• The End of Days by Jenny Erpenbeck: another author (and translator and publisher) held in high regard by the BTBA judges, so chances seem pretty good for the new one.

       In addition, if Open Letter do publish Georgi Gospodinov's The Physics of Sorrow this year I would expect that to be a likely longlist candidate.

       Among the books I have seen or heard more about, I suspect these will at least be in the longlist-discussions:

• Severina by Rodrigo Rey Rosa: The African Shore was a runner-up this year and I liked this one better, so I figure this more bookish tale stands a good chance
  
  
• 1914 by Jean Echenoz: another slim title, but it punches considerably above its weight. And it's Echenoz.
  
  
• The Good Life Elsewhere by Vladimir Lorchenkov: tinged with bleakness, but the rare comic novel that I could see making the longlist.
  
  
• Karate Chop by Dorthe Nors: a hell of an impressive voice -- but a very thin (less than ninety-page) collection of stories. Is that substantial enough ?
  
  
• Conversations by César Aira: Aira always catches the judges' eyes, so this one will at least be strongly considered.
  
  
• Colorless Tsukuru Tazaki and His Years of Pilgrimage by Murakami Haruki: the biggest-name translation of the year ? It'll certainly at least get a closer look.

       Two works that will probably fall by the eligibility-wayside but otherwise would be longlist-contenders are:

• Works by Edouard Levé
• The Gray Notebook by Josep Pla

       Finally, there are a couple of notable books that have/will get decent attention but which I think (wishfully ?) might fall short of making the longlist:

• My Struggle III by Karl Ove Knausgaard: I suspect this might be the one where Knausgaard-fatigue sets in; my guess is that his best chance comes in a couple of years, with the final volume (VI) -- if that's solid (and it sounds like it's a hell of a lot of fun) that should see him through to the shortlist and is his best shot to take the prize. But volumes three through five probably really need to stand out to get their due.
  
  
• Talking to Ourselves by Andrés Neuman: yeah, this might just be me, but I just don't think this is good enough. I suspect we'll see a Neuman in the BTBA-prize-mix soon enough, but I hope it's a stronger work.
  
  
• Viviane by Julia Deck: intriguing, but not strong enough, in my mind.

       Finally, in the continuing search for a genre title that can play with the big titles, I think Pascal Garnier (The Panda Theory, etc.) is the odds-on favorite; certainly the author-discovery of the year for me so far in 2014. The big issue there: which title (it looks like he'll have four eligible titles this year). The fall-back: The Mad and the Bad by Jean-Patrick Manchette.
       I'm sure I'm missing some notable, obvious titles, and I'm sure some other Archipelago and Seagull Books (among others) will figure strongly in the mix, but from this early vantage point this is how I see the race shaping up for now.
       As to my early favorite: in the absence of much of the competition, which I haven't seen/read yet, it's got to be: the Bitov.

       Impressively/entertainingly, there's already a BTBA 2015: Speculation-thread at The Mookse and the Gripes Forum -- check it out, and play along !