So Unibet have posted odds for this year's Nobel Prize in Literature (to be announced in October).
I hesitate to even bother with these, but in the continued absence of the much-anticipated Ladbrokes odds (they take their sweet time, and it'll probably be a few more weeks) it's a starting/reference point ... of sorts.
(paf also has (the same) odds up.)
My hesitation arises out of the fact that it's a pretty limited list -- sure, 41 names, but as far as serious contenders goes it's pretty thin, with many names that can easily be ignored. While thankfully neither J.K.Rowling nor Bob Dylan rate a mention (as they did last year), other names that they offered odds on last year but don't include (yet) this year include perennial favorites (or at least names-that-people-always-include-in-the-mix) Les Murray, Adonis, Ko Un, Cormac McCarthy, Margaret Atwood, Salman Rushdie, Gerald Murnane, Peter Carey, Don DeLillo, and Jonathan Franzen, for example. That's a lot of big names to miss (and there are many more).
Several of the names that do make the list are easily disposed of, too: I feel fairly confident in saying that Andrea Camilleri is not going to win, for example (and certainly isn't a 20/1 favorite). I feel confident in stating that neither Azar Nafisi nor Daniel Kahneman are going to win the Nobel Prize in Literature. (Nafisi has written just two books, and Kahneman is more likely to win the award in medicine; there's something to be said for an author who mainly writes non-fiction winning the award, but neither of these two has written widely enough to be seriously considered.) Similarly, I don't think Roberto Saviano qualifies yet either -- also because he is still too young, as is also the case for quite a few of these authors: Karl Ove Knausgård may be closer than most to having a body of work that's both of appropriate quality and size, but I don't think they feel in any rush to give him the Nobel yet (though he is certainly a contender down the line), while others are simply too young and haven't produced enough: Anna Funder, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, Merethe Lindstrøm, Sofi Oksanen, Christian Jungersen, Shyam Selvadurai, etc.
(Note that these names might well have been among those submitted to the Swedish Academy -- one can see someone nominating Saviano, Oksanen, or Adichie -- but I simply can't imagine they got anywhere near being in consideration for the shortlist.)
There are other weaknesses galore: Arabic is completely underrepresented -- and German totally ignored. (I don't think a German-writing winner is very likely, given recent winners Jelinek and Müller, but you know that several names were submitted and there has to be an outside chance .....) Etc. etc.
So what can be gleaned ? Well, new names are always of interest -- so No Word From Gurb-author Eduardo Mendoza Garriga is worth a closer look, for example. This may just be a post-Premio Planeta blip, but still ..... Another new name: Flemish poet Leonard Nolens. (I don't really see either as a strong contender, but the names came from somewhere, and both have a big enough body of work and have received enough international recognition that one could make a case for either.)
As to the current favorites, they're not entirely implausible: Mo Yan certainly has always seemed to me a reasonable Chinese candidate (but the absence of any other Chinese author on the list is entirely unreasonable). Murakami, Nooteboom, Munro, Vila-Matas, Kadare, Philip Roth ..... These names, and some of the others, are certainly among the well-known favorites, and probably deservedly at least in the discussion-mix. But neither their presence on this list -- nor the odds themselves -- are particularly revealing at this point. (But do keep an eye on those odds.)
Also of some interest: some Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o-books have recently been translated into Swedish, and have been getting decent review attention. He's another author who is often mentioned for the Nobel (in some part also due to my repeated mentions ...) -- and also another author missing from the Unibet betting list.
In his review in Svenska Dagbladet Magnus Eriksson goes out of his way to say he doesn't think Ngũgĩ's work is as consistently good as that of Chinua Achebe, Ben Okri, Nuruddin Farah, and (deceased) Yvonne Vera -- which makes me wonder what Eriksson has beensmoking reading: Okri had a decent book or two but has gone over the spiritual edge, and Vera ... okay, a lot of folks think Vera was onto something, but I never got her work (most of it is under review at the complete review; see, for example, The Stone Virgins).
Obviously, there's a strong case to be made for Achebe -- though it's been a long while since he's published any significant fiction or poetry -- and Farah is consistent and worth consideration too, but Ngũgĩ's more varied output, with the recent high-point of Wizard of the Crow, is pretty hard to argue with, too.
And remember that there are active discussions of all of this (and much (not always relevant ...) more) at the always worth following Nobel threads at the World Literature Forum and the Fictional Woods.
My hesitation arises out of the fact that it's a pretty limited list -- sure, 41 names, but as far as serious contenders goes it's pretty thin, with many names that can easily be ignored. While thankfully neither J.K.Rowling nor Bob Dylan rate a mention (as they did last year), other names that they offered odds on last year but don't include (yet) this year include perennial favorites (or at least names-that-people-always-include-in-the-mix) Les Murray, Adonis, Ko Un, Cormac McCarthy, Margaret Atwood, Salman Rushdie, Gerald Murnane, Peter Carey, Don DeLillo, and Jonathan Franzen, for example. That's a lot of big names to miss (and there are many more).
Several of the names that do make the list are easily disposed of, too: I feel fairly confident in saying that Andrea Camilleri is not going to win, for example (and certainly isn't a 20/1 favorite). I feel confident in stating that neither Azar Nafisi nor Daniel Kahneman are going to win the Nobel Prize in Literature. (Nafisi has written just two books, and Kahneman is more likely to win the award in medicine; there's something to be said for an author who mainly writes non-fiction winning the award, but neither of these two has written widely enough to be seriously considered.) Similarly, I don't think Roberto Saviano qualifies yet either -- also because he is still too young, as is also the case for quite a few of these authors: Karl Ove Knausgård may be closer than most to having a body of work that's both of appropriate quality and size, but I don't think they feel in any rush to give him the Nobel yet (though he is certainly a contender down the line), while others are simply too young and haven't produced enough: Anna Funder, Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, Merethe Lindstrøm, Sofi Oksanen, Christian Jungersen, Shyam Selvadurai, etc.
(Note that these names might well have been among those submitted to the Swedish Academy -- one can see someone nominating Saviano, Oksanen, or Adichie -- but I simply can't imagine they got anywhere near being in consideration for the shortlist.)
There are other weaknesses galore: Arabic is completely underrepresented -- and German totally ignored. (I don't think a German-writing winner is very likely, given recent winners Jelinek and Müller, but you know that several names were submitted and there has to be an outside chance .....) Etc. etc.
So what can be gleaned ? Well, new names are always of interest -- so No Word From Gurb-author Eduardo Mendoza Garriga is worth a closer look, for example. This may just be a post-Premio Planeta blip, but still ..... Another new name: Flemish poet Leonard Nolens. (I don't really see either as a strong contender, but the names came from somewhere, and both have a big enough body of work and have received enough international recognition that one could make a case for either.)
As to the current favorites, they're not entirely implausible: Mo Yan certainly has always seemed to me a reasonable Chinese candidate (but the absence of any other Chinese author on the list is entirely unreasonable). Murakami, Nooteboom, Munro, Vila-Matas, Kadare, Philip Roth ..... These names, and some of the others, are certainly among the well-known favorites, and probably deservedly at least in the discussion-mix. But neither their presence on this list -- nor the odds themselves -- are particularly revealing at this point. (But do keep an eye on those odds.)
Also of some interest: some Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o-books have recently been translated into Swedish, and have been getting decent review attention. He's another author who is often mentioned for the Nobel (in some part also due to my repeated mentions ...) -- and also another author missing from the Unibet betting list.
In his review in Svenska Dagbladet Magnus Eriksson goes out of his way to say he doesn't think Ngũgĩ's work is as consistently good as that of Chinua Achebe, Ben Okri, Nuruddin Farah, and (deceased) Yvonne Vera -- which makes me wonder what Eriksson has been
And remember that there are active discussions of all of this (and much (not always relevant ...) more) at the always worth following Nobel threads at the World Literature Forum and the Fictional Woods.